龙定斌总领事：滥施关税损害全球经济与民生福祉

中国驻珀斯总领事龙定斌日前在澳洲《卫报》发表题为《滥施关税损害全球经济与民生福祉》的署名文章。

全文如下：

滥施关税损害全球经济与民生福祉

近期，美国打着所谓“对等”旗号对所有贸易伙伴滥施关税，一度将对华关税提升至最高245%。在中方坚决反制下，美方于5月12日同意将暂时对华商品关税降至30%，其中包括以芬太尼为由对华加征20%的关税，为期90天；同期中方将对美商品关税从125%降至10%。美方以芬太尼为借口对中国无理加征两轮关税，中方均第一时间采取包括关税和非关税措施在内的反制举措，坚定维护自身正当权益，这些反制措施仍然有效。

美国将霸权主义凌驾于国际社会公利，以关税手段颠覆国际经贸秩序，已经严重影响了全球经济社会稳定。IMF最新预测，2025年世界经济增速为2.8%，较此前预测下降0.5个百分点。摩根大通公司将今年全球经济发生衰退的预期概率从40%提升至60%。IMF估计，若美加征关税引发“全球贸易战”，累计潜在经济损失可能达到全球GDP的7%。更深远的影响在于：全球贫困人口因粮食价格上涨增加2800万（联合国粮农组织，2024），发展中国家基础设施建设因钢铁关税推迟5-7年。

关税战以“经济安全”为名发起，最终代价却由普通民众承担。美国彼得森研究所测算显示，对华关税使美国家庭年均支出增加1300美元，而中国出口企业裁员人数已突破50万。美国银行（BOA）研究指出，“对等关税”导致的成本传导将使汽车、家电、汽油等商品价格全面上涨，中低收入家庭年均支出将增加1700—5400美元。加拿大统计局最新数据显示，今年4月该国失业率已升至6.9%，为8年来最高水平（不含疫情期间），制造业和批发零售业分别减少3.1万、2.7万个岗位。

“关税大棒”正将全球高科技供应链拖入碎片化、低效化泥沼。据美国半导体行业协会（SIA）统计，全球约75%的芯片制造能力集中于东亚，其中10纳米以下先进制程产能更是100%掌握在中国台湾省（92%）与韩国（8%）手中。若美国一意孤行推动本地化替代，全球将为此付出超过1万亿美元的额外前期投入。

当前，人类再次站在发展的十字路口。从二战后的关税总协定到21世纪的世界贸易组织，国际社会用70年时间搭建的经济合作体系，绝不能被短视的民族主义所摧毁。在全球经济复苏乏力、地缘冲突频发的当下，唯有坚持合作，才能守护来之不易的发展成果。各国应当秉持共商共建共享原则，共同反对各种形式的单边主义、保护主义，维护以联合国为核心的国际体系，以世界贸易组织为核心的多边贸易体制。唯有坚持“拉手而非松手，拆墙而非筑墙”的智慧，才能让和平发展的阳光继续普照地球村每个角落。

中方在关税问题上的立场一以贯之，关税战、贸易战没有赢家，中方不愿打，但也不怕打。美方有关做法实质上是单边主义与保护主义的回潮，不仅违背经济全球化规律，更威胁人类历经数十年努力构建的和平发展环境。面对美方“边打边谈”策略，中国始终保持“两条腿走路”：既做好持久战准备，也为建设性对话保留空间。希望美方尽快取消“芬太尼税”、芯片禁令、针对中国企业的“实体清单”等歧视性措施，实现真正意义上的对等开放。

中澳两国经济高度互补，是天然的合作伙伴。澳大利亚中国工商业委员会（ACBC）报告显示，2022—2023财年对华贸易使澳平均家庭可支配收入增加2600澳元，占澳平均家庭可支配收入的4.6%，为澳创造59.56万个就业机会，使澳家庭节约生活成本4.2%，澳从中国进口占澳进口比重越大，生活成本降低越多。

当前中国正推动全面深化改革，推进中国式现代化，给中澳合作带来更多机遇。两国加强合作可以将互补优势转化为两国共同发展的有力动能，不断培育新增长点，做大合作共赢的蛋糕，更好地造福两国人民，也有利于维护全球产业链供应链稳定畅通，为两国、地区乃至世界经济的持续恢复注入更多的正能量。

英文全文如下：

Tariffs, the global economy, and well-being

LONG Dingbin Chinese Consul General in Perth

Recently, the US has been imposing tariffs on all trading partners under the guise of so-called "reciprocal”, and at one point raised tariffs on China to a maximum of 245%. Under China's resolute countermeasures, the US agreed on 12th May to temporarily reduce tariffs on Chinese goods to 30% for 90 days, including a 20% fentanyl related tariff.

During the same period, China will reduce its tariffs on US goods from 125% to 10%. The US has unreasonably imposed two rounds of tariffs on China under the pretext of fentanyl, China has taken countermeasures including tariffs and non-tariff measures, firmly safeguarding its legitimate rights and interests, these countermeasures are still effective.

The United States placed hegemonism above the interests of the international community, subverted the international economic and trade order through tariff measures, which has seriously affected global economic and social stability. IMF predicted the world economy will grow 2.8% in 2025 recently, shows a decrease of 0.5 percentage points from the previous prediction. JPMorgan Chase has raised the probability of a global economic recession this year from 40% to 60%.

The IMF also warned that if the US tariffs trigger a "global trade war," the cumulative potential economic losses could reach 7% of global GDP. More profound impact is that the global impoverished population has increased by 28 million due to rising food prices (FAO, 2024), and infrastructure construction in developing countries has been delayed by 5-7 years due to steel tariffs.

The tariff war was launched under the pretext of "economic security", but the ultimate cost was borne by ordinary people. The Peterson Institute of the United States calculates that tariffs on China have increased the average annual expenditure of American households by US$1300, while the number of layoffs in Chinese export companies has exceeded 500,000.

According to the Bank of America, the cost transmission caused by "reciprocal tariffs" will lead to a comprehensive increase in prices of goods such as cars, home appliances, and gasoline, and the average annual expenditure of low and middle income households will increase by US$1700-5400. The latest data from Statistics Canada shows that the country's unemployment rate rose to 6.9% in April this year, the highest level in 8 years (excluding the pandemic period), with manufacturing, wholesale and retail industries losing 31,000 and 27,000 jobs respectively.

The 'tariff stick' is dragging the global high-tech supply chain into a quagmire of fragmentation and inefficiency. According to Semiconductor Industry Association (SIA), about 75% of the global chip manufacturing capacity is concentrated in East Asia, and 100% of the advanced manufacturing process capacity below 10nm is in the hands of Taiwan Province of China (92%) and the Republic of Korea (8%). If the United States persists in promoting localized substitution, the world will have to pay over US$ 1 trillion in additional upfront investment.

Humanity is once again at a crossroads of development. The economic cooperation system built by the international community over 70 years, from the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade after World War II to the World Trade Organization in the 21st century, must not be destroyed by short-sighted nationalism. In the current era of weak global economic recovery and frequent geopolitical conflicts, only by persisting in cooperation can we safeguard the hard won development achievements.

All countries should adhere to the principle of extensive consultation, joint construction, and shared benefits, jointly oppose all forms of unilateralism and protectionism, and uphold the international system centered on the United Nations and the multilateral trading system centered on the World Trade Organization. Only by adhering to the wisdom of "holding hands instead of letting go, dismantling walls instead of building them" can the sunshine of peaceful development continue to shine on every corner of the global village.

China's position on tariff issues has always been consistent. There are no winners in tariff wars or trade wars. China is unwilling to fight, but it is also not afraid to fight. The actions taken by the United States are essentially a resurgence of unilateralism and protectionism, which not only violates the laws of economic globalization, but also threatens the peaceful development environment that humanity has worked hard to build for decades. Faced with the US strategy of "fighting while talking", China has always maintained a "two legged approach": preparing for a protracted war and reserving space for constructive dialogue. We hope that the US will soon lift discriminatory measures such as the fentanyl related tax, chip ban, and "entity list" targeting Chinese companies, to achieve true equal opening up.

China and Australia have highly complementary economies and are natural partners for cooperation. According to a report by the Australian China Business Council (ACBC), trade with China increased the average household disposable income in Australia by AU$ 2600, accounting for 4.6% of the average household disposable income, creating 595,600 job opportunities and saving living costs by 4.2% for Australian households in the 2022-2023 fiscal year. The larger the proportion of imports from China in Australia's imports, the more the cost of living is reduced.

At present, China is pushing comprehensively deepening reform and promoting Chinese modernization, bringing more opportunities to China Australia cooperation. Strengthening cooperation between the two countries can transform their complementary advantages into a powerful driving force for their common development, constantly cultivate new growth points, expand the cake of win-win cooperation, better benefit the people of both countries, help maintain the stability and smoothness of the global industrial chain and supply chain, inject more positive energy into the sustained recovery of the economies of the two countries, and indeed the world.